Today we will look at one of the main ways that political scientists measure political participation: voter turnout.
Today we will look at one of the main ways that political scientists measure political participation: voter turnout. In this episode we will look at the historical expansion of voting rights over time (1:27), consider different models of voting behavior (2:45), and the effect of individuals (5:26) and the state(8:00) on voter turnout in our elections.
Today’s question of the day (10:30): True or False: States can deny your right to vote based on your criminal history.
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Hi and welcome to the APsolute Recap:US Government Edition. Today’s episode will recap Influences on Voting
Lets Zoom out:
Unit 5 - Political Participation
Topics- 5.1-5.2
Big idea - Methods of Political Analysis
One of the main ways that political scientists measure political participation is voter turnout. In this episode we will look at the historical expansion of voting rights over time, consider different models of voting behavior, and the effect of individuals and the state on voter turnout in our elections
Lets Zoom in:
As you may recall from your US history class, or even earlier episodes of this podcast, being able to participate in an election was not something that was a Constitutional guarantee for everyone from the start. In a previous episode, we discussed the idea that amendments to the Constitution are often to increase participation in our democratic process. To that end, we are briefly going to go over 5 of those amendments and how they expanded political participation.
The Fifteenth Amendment was passed following the Civil War to grant formerly enslaved men the right to vote. The Seventeenth Amendment, ratified in 1913, allowed for the direct election of Senators by the people. Previously, Senators were chosen by the state legislatures. As discussed, the founders were wary of giving the people too much direct democracy, which is why they were only able to vote for members of the House of Representatives. The Nineteenth Amendment gave women the right to vote in 1920 after a decades-long fight led by Susan B Anthony, Alice Paul, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, Lucy Stone, and Ida B Wells. The Twenty Fourth Amendment eliminated the poll tax, a financial barrier to voting which disproportionately affected people of color. The Twenty Sixth amendment was passed in 1971 following protests over the draft and Vietnam war. The fact was that men were being drafted, but couldn’t vote for the person in office sending them to war. “Old enough to fight, old enough to vote” was a slogan often heard when promoting the idea of lowering the voting age to 18.
When people go to vote, their reason for voting can be categorized into one of four different political models. Please keep in mind that these voting models can vary person to person and also for a person from one election to the next. The first of these models is rational choice voting. Simply put, this type of voting is when an individual casts the vote for the candidate that is in his or her best interest. Meaning, that candidate or the policies are seen as personally beneficial to the person voting. Thus, they are making the “rational choice” based on their own interests, or what they see as their interest. The second model is retrospective voting. This is when recent events and the track record of the candidate determine the vote. Basically, the people are voting based on whether or not they think the person in charge did a good job. Often this is based on the performance of the economy.
Then there is prospective voting, which is voting based on a prediction of what will happen in the future. Remember retrospective voting is based on reflection and prospective voting is based on prediction. Finally, there is Party-Line voting. This one is fairly self explanatory. Party line voters support the same party members at all levels of government.
So far, this episode has focused on expanding who could vote in this country, and what might explain the reasoning behind a vote. Now we will turn our attention to factors that affect whether or not a person exercises that right to vote. There are several individual factors as well as state laws regarding elections that affect whether or not people vote, and thus, voter turn out.
First let’s look at factors that affect voter choice and could influence whether or not an individual chooses to come out and vote in an election. One of the largest factors can be party identification. The extent to which people align themselves with a specific political party changes over time. Placing too much emphasis on party registration when looking at voter turnout can lead to errors, especially if a person’s views have had a large shift, but he or she didn’t bother to change party registration and simply voted for the other party’s candidate on voting day. Both candidate characteristics and current issues are also factors that influence voter choice. For example, in the 2016 election, 18% of people surveyed said that they didn’t like either candidate. Of those who voted: 29% voted for Clinton, 49% for Trump, and 22% picked a third party candidate. This shows that not liking a candidate doesn’t necessarily lead to not voting. Other demographic factors can also play a big role such as income level, age, educational level, and gender. Older people tend to turn out in much higher numbers than the 18-24 demographic. That being said, there wasn’t always as large an ideological gap as there is now. The 2018 midterms saw a record gap between the youngest and oldest demographic. The same is also true for the gender gap between men and women.
In a previous episode we looked at the difference in voter turnout between midterm and presidential elections. Now, we will focus on some other factors that affect voter turnout. Among western democracies, the United States has a much lower voter turnout compared to other countries. While some of this is the result of personal apathy amongst American voters, there are also many structural barriers to voting here in the United States that aren't present in other countries. There has been a growing criticism that holding our elections on Tuesday compared to holding an election on the weekend. Having a single day to vote during the work week makes it harder for shift workers, those working two jobs, and college students to vote. Many countries have mandatory voting, where individuals are actually fined for not voting. Obviously, their voter turnout is higher than countries that don’t punish non voters.
Another important factor is state regulation regarding voter registration and ID laws. States that have stricter registration and ID laws make it harder for individuals to vote and this can lead to lower turnout and voter suppression. Contrastingly, studies have shown that states that make it easier to register to vote have higher turnout. Currently there are a little over a dozen states that have automatic voter registration, often through the DMV, where an individual is automatically registered to vote when signing up for another state service. Most states now have some form of early voting, which is also proven to increase voter turnout as it gives individuals an option to vote if they cannot vote on election. However, it is worth noting that in some states with early voting you need a state approved reason for not voting in person on election day.
As a result of Covid 19, many states made changes to both their early voting options and mail in voting. Up until this election, the idea of mail in voting was not a partisan issue. In fact, Oregon has had only mail in voting on the state level since 1998. The 2020 presidential election had the highest voter turnout among eligible voters in 120 years, with 66.7% of the population voting. It also set a record for the number of votes cast with over 159 million, shattering the old record of 140 million. While there has been partisan fighting over some states' expansion of methods of voting, most political scientists would agree that the 2020 election was a success because it showed that offering people options of how and when they vote will lead to an increase in voter turnout and ultimately more political participation in our democracy.
To recap……
Opportunities for more people to vote were created by the addition of several amendments to the Constitution. While voting behavior can be explained by one of four models, whether or not people vote is less simple. The process involves numerous personal factors as well as state imposed regulations surrounding voter registration, ID requirements, and the process of voting which can encourage or discourage voting amongst certain parts of the population.
Coming up next on the Apsolute RecAP US Government Edition: Interest Groups
Today’s Question of the day is about Disenfranchisement
Question: True or False: States can deny your right to vote based on your criminal history.