Today we will look at public opinion. Find out what it is, what affects it how it is measured...
Today we will look at public opinion. Find out what it is (1:09), what affects it (1:48) how it is measured (2:14) and why it plays an important part in political strategy (5:55).
Today’s question of the day (6:51): What is the commonly accepted margin of error in a public opinion poll?
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Hi and welcome to the APsolute Recap: US Government Edition. Today’s episode will recap Public Opinion
Lets Zoom out:
Unit 4 - American Political Ideologies and Beliefs
Topic- 4.5-4.6
Big idea - Methods of Political Analysis
Public opinion is an important part of the political process and can affect everything from campaign strategies to policy making. Public opinion is measured through a series of scientific polls by various pollsters and represent various institutions, both public and private. Polling plays an important part in political strategy, and the credibility of the polls vary, based on the methods used to conduct the poll.
Lets Zoom in:
So what exactly is public opinion? The technical definition is the opinions of private people that the government finds it prudent to heed. Meaning, advertising, or other opinions the people have about products or elements of pop culture doesn’t fall within this definition. Public opinion is a bit of a misnomer. There is not usually a singular American opinion about any given issue. With over three hundred million people, and a variety of experiences, opinions on topics vary widely based on your demographic makeup. Public opinion is affected by socio economic factors, gender, age, and one’s attitudes about politics as well as deep rooted values. The first opinion poll designed to measure public opinions on issues was created by George Gallup in 1932. To this day, Gallup is still a trusted poll when it comes to public opinion
Let’s look at how a poll works. Since it would be impossible to ask all 300 million plus Americans their opinions on everything from healthcare to presidential preferences, pollsters create a sampling of people who represent the larger population of the country. Therefore, the groups of people who are taking part in the survey are called the sample. Often the people who administer polls are looking for a random sampling. This means that everyone has an equal chance of being chosen to take part in the survey. The idea behind this is that you hope to have a sample that is fairly representative of the population as a whole. There are a number of different ways polls can be conducted: door to door, online, and by phone are some of the common methods. The method of the poll will impact the results. People might be less likely to sit on the phone for a survey than answer questions door to door. Younger people tend to have both phones and access to the internet, where other demographics of people might not.
Despite the science behind a correctly executed poll is solid, (95% accurate), there is a lot that can go wrong in polling which has led to increasing skepticism. The sample might not be truly random, or the wording of questions might sway the outcome of the respondents answers. Over time, it has become increasingly difficult to get a truly accurate sample, even with randomization that occurs. People are less and less likely to take part in polls, which skews the outcomes to reflect the opinions of the people who are more willing to participate in a poll to begin with. Other problems include having people give opinions on topics on which they are not well informed or having inconsistencies in their policies, such as saying they want to increase the budget for the military but not have taxes raised to do so. The timing of polls is also important because public opinion on a subject can change rapidly if new circumstances arise. For example, in 2016 most national polls gave Hillary Clinton the advantage. However, state polls taken about a week before the election showed a much closer presidential race. Why? The national polls stopped gathering public opinions before the James Comey letter saying they were reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails was released. The news of that breaking so close to the election clearly changed public opinion that wasn’t reflected in the polls, but became evident as the exit numbers on the night of the election started to roll in.
Gathering public opinion is important for politicians not only because they want to keep their job and be re-elected, but also because it is the job of government to represent and enact the will of the people. Public opinion plays an important role in determining policies, but it is only one component of that process. Furthermore, measuring public opinion can be hard and at times is inconsistent with the true nature of how individuals or groups of individuals feel.
To recap……
Public opinion is the opinion of individuals that the government cares about when it comes to politics and policy making. Public opinion is influenced by a variety of factors and changes over time. While it is possible to have bad polling, when done correctly it can be very accurate and help the government better do its job.
Coming up next on the Apsolute RecAP US Government Edition: Political Parties, Ideology, and Policy Making
Today’s Question of the day is about Polling Error
Question: What is the commonly accepted margin of error in a public opinion poll?